filed under Daily Dose | Election 2008 | Politics
Obama kinda wins Nevada!
12:41AM ON
01/20/2008
BY
Ari Savitzky
Sort of.
For those who’ve been watching the returns, it’s Hillary 51%, Obama 45% and Edwards at 4%, with basically ‘erbody reporting. What does this mean? Nothing incredible- Obama and Hillary took it down to the wire, and, as we already knew, they’re both going to scrap it out for the nomination. Where Edwards goes from here is anybody’s guess, though South Carolina would be the obvious answer. It’s probably worth noting that these percentage totals are the percent of state delegates (who then vote for national delegates) won by the various campaigns. Popular vote (eg first ballot) totals will probably be tighter.
But before we take a closer look at the Dems’ week of Nevada mudslinging, or the fact that Nevada GOP voters were basically either Mormons or Ron Paul freaks, let’s just note that Obama actually won Nevada. That’s right: of Nevada’s 25 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, 13 will go to Obama, and 12 to Clinton. Howza? Simple: Clinton’s ground game pushed her over the top in Clark County, home of Las Vegas, and by far the state’s most populous. But the delegate apportionment rules favor candidates who are competitive across the state, and sure enough, Obama not only placed a strong second in Clark, but won most of the other counties in Nevada.
Hill’s groundgame, racist robocalls and the GOP race after the jump.
1. I hope the Obama campaign is paying attention to how HRC won in New Hampshire and Nevada, because they did it on the ground. I don’t know if “mysterious turnout guru” Michael Whouley was in Vegas, but, just like in New Hampshire, Hillary’s turnout operation in the big cities is what put her over the top. In New Hampshire, her margin in Manchester was basically the margin of victory. Same deal in NV, where her win can be entirely chalked up to her margin in Clark County. And CNN’s entrance poll tells the story:
On their face they show a very strong showing for Hillary. And the breakdown of demographics strikes me as stunning on age and gender.
Male 42%, Female 58%. On age, 68% are over 45. 36% over 60.
Older white women are Hillary’s core supporters, and the campaign turned them out in droves. CNN’s poll also says that HRC won by 35 points among Latino/as, but that number seems inflated, as those same numbers have Obama winning among non-white men and women, in a state where the non-white population is predominantly Latino.
At any rate, targeted turnout operations are more effective in early states, when a campaign can focus a lot of resources on a small potential voter pool. Still, I give HRC propz, and I hope Obama’s campaign is making their lists and checkin’ em twice for SC and the Feb 5th States (and for Florida?)
2. If there’s one thing that the Clinton campaign does better than good ‘ol fashioned turnout, then its sliming the crap out of the opposition. Ok, maybe they weren’t responsible for this anti-Obama robo-call. But if the shoe fits:
“I’m calling with some important information about Barack Hussein Obama,” the call begins, before saying that “Barack Hussein Obama says he doesn’t take money from Washington lobbyists or special interest groups but the record is clear that he does.”
After mentioning his full name once more, the call concludes:
“You just can’t take a chance on Barack Hussein Obama.”
The Obama campaign has the audio. South Carolina, the land of Atwater, will hopefully not be a huge stinky mudbath.
3. McCain won in SC, with Huckabee a close second, and Romney won NV with a massive margin, with Ron Motherfucking Paul grabbing the two spot.
What does this mean?
Romney seems like he’s on a hot streak, but closer inspection reveals that he was the only one pouring resources into Wyoming and Nevada, and that his dad was the governor of Michigan. Basically, he could win, but its going to become expensive to keep buying successively larger and more hotly contested elections.
McCain is still in it, but his next act seems unclear- Florida will be a crowded field, and could end up going to Huckabee. He’s got to raise the money to build a national campaign around his NH and SC wins.
So, Huck, Mitt-for-brains and McCain are still viable. Ron Paul is actually starting to win some delegates, and Fred Thompson too kindof but he’s still a loser. Duncan Hunter finally dropped out. And then there’s RuGiu, whose campaign has kept carrion-feeders at bay by continuously claiming that not winning a single delegate until Super Tuesday was his strategy from the very beginning. Well played, dumbass!
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One Comment on “ Obama kinda wins Nevada! ”
January 20th, 2008 at 11:33AM
Linda Collins Says:
It’s these robo-calls, voter suppression (like closing the Obama-inclining caucus sites in Nevada 30 minutes early and directing Obama voters to the wrong sites, on top of such behavior in Nevada), borderline race-baiting– that make it impossible for us to support Hillary.
In our home, we were big Hillary boosters throughout most of 2007.
But now it’s become obvious who the Clintons are– narcissistic power-seekers who would do anything, even to the point of dividing and disenfranchising voters and attacking the heart of our very democracy, to get office.
This is absolutely not what we need in a Democratic candidate. It goes straight against our principles.
If Hillary were nominated for the Democrats, then in November, we’re going to be staying home and watering the garden, finding a minor-party candidate to support or even writing in a new name on the ballot. But under no circumstances will we ever vote for Hillary. She has permanently lost this very Democratic neighborhood.
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