Ooh this is neat! My favorite political blog, fivethirtyeight.com, so named because of the number of electoral votes, is doing a running breakdown of all of the states, and is graciously including states like Rhode Island where Obama literally cannot lose unless he performs a partial-birth abortion on national TV. Which he couldn’t do anyway because there’s no such thing.

Fivethirtyeight is all about the numbers; the basic feature of the site is a sophisticated electoral college simulator which takes state and national polling data, along with demographic and historical trends, postulates state outcomes based on the data, and then runs itself 10,000 times a day to come out with an overall win percentage. Either that’s really cool, or I am shockingly lame.

Either way, the table reproduced here has the basic demographic data, which is pretty interesting. You may have known that we’re the most catholic state. But did you know we’re the least white evangelical state? Also, 2nd highest unemployment rate? Ouch.

In the site’s RI roundup, we learn about the potential advantages as well as the hulking, soul-engulfing hurdles faced by McCain in this unwinnable state. Also, some of the commenters have clearly been here. more »

* Ballot Measure in Massachusetts would eliminate income taxes. And all they have to give up are roads and public education!

* Out-of-character Colbert sez living under Bush has been “eating a shitburger supreme,” stays mum on how Mooseshitburger supreme tastes.

* McCain campaign literally wetting its Depends over the idea of a highly exploitable, media-heavy pre-election wedding for knocked up Alaskan teen Bristol Palin. Baby-daddy Levi Johnston desperately trying to wake up from this godawful nightmare. America feels you, Levi.

* Somali Piratez R Stealing Ur Tankz. Wait, what? more »

The Great Schlep is here! Young Jews from across our great, somewhat confused nation will trek down to Ft. Lauderdale and harangue their grandparents and their friends into voting for Obama. Time to cash in all those years of cheek pinching. The LA Times explains:

The Jewish Council for Education and Research — a new pro-Obama political action committee — is organizing “The Great Schlep,” in which hundreds of Jews will make the Southern exodus on Columbus Day weekend, Oct. 10-13. They will travel to the Fort Lauderdale area, where they will visit their grandparents, organize political salons in their condos and eat incredibly bad food. The grandkids also will meet up at a bar one night, which — if the psychological impact of spending a few days with frail, elderly, widowed relatives is taken fully into account — may do more to repopulate the world’s Jews than the creation of Israel.

In case you’re interested, but aren’t exactly sure how to pitch Obama to your elderly, hard-of-hearing, maybe-a-little-racist snowbird relations down in the Sunshine State, I’ve cooked up a nice mock pitch, to be delivered to “Aunt Ethel.”

Here’s the thing Aunt Ethel: I came all the way down to Palm Beach because, well, this election is important. Really important. Now look, remember how upset you were when you accidentally voted for Pat Buchanan in 2000? We don’t want that to happen again. And this John McCain character, he’s got less menschkeit than Shabbatai Zevi. He’s a real shlemiel. And this Palin. Don’t get me started. She’s just no good for the Jews. You know she bans books? You know who else banned books? Hitler, that’s who.

more »

I’ll be the first to defend Tyra Banks…on most occasions. Ever since I read Lynn Hirschberg’s profile of the model/mogul in the New York Times magazine, I’ve felt that Tyra—despite the sometimes ridiculous and offensive segments on her talk show—deserves ample praise for the empire she built, the brains she’s got and, duh, for ANTM. But now she’s gone and done something pretty tasteless. Yes, they’re both strong, black women, but this Harper’s BAZAAR photo shoot in which Tyra enacts a day in the life of (future) First Lady Michelle Obama is horrendous.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDL_8Xv6kDs]

Ericka J. Atwell, a senior at Rhode Island College, was impeached from her position as the school’s Student Community Government Deputy Speaker in March, but she’s decided to give politics another go…with more on the line. After having been found guilty of circulating candidacy petitions on behalf of other students—an action forbidden by RIC SCG bylaws—the 22-year-old has filed to run for District 27 State Representative as a Republican against incumbent Representative Patricia A. Serpa.

Atwell’s Republican primary challenger, Thomas K. Jones, questions the wisdom of his party in endorsing this controversial young woman. “If the Republican Party is going to be taken seriously in Rhode Island,” he told the ProJo, “We need to run serious candidates with a track record of being involved in their communities.”

Atwell, who learned a great deal about political integrity during her internship with Governor Carcieri, explains, “I’ve moved on to bigger and better things. I loved serving the students and working with the administration, but I learned that sometimes you have to cut your losses and move forward.”

In an earlier version of this post, I alluded to an inside rumor about Ericka J. Atwell campaigning in a mini-dress and heels. I apologize for including this piece of gossip, although it did come from a fairly credible source. As a young woman active in politics, I often resent the extent to which I must dress more formally and frigidly than my male counterparts in order to be taken seriously, and it would be a shame to propagate rumors about a young female candidate—rumors that very well might be aimed at discrediting her based on her age and appearance—when I myself am so familiar with this struggle. I apologize for including that tidbit.  If it’s true, however, it’s still hilarious, not to mention totally inappropriate.

The honorable Matt Jerzyk has a post to this effect over at RIFuture, as does Sir Ian McKellen Donnis at N4N, but I feel the need to reiterate: what’s up with the AG? While 42 other attorneys general signed on to support the Free Flow of Information Act, which would create a qualified federal shield law for reporters, Patrick Lynch did not. Lynch, who on June 19 was elected president of the National Association of Attorneys General, does justice (no pun intended) to that organization’s alias: the National Association of Aspiring Governors.

I think a lot of Rhode Islanders take for granted an important lil’ Rhody anomaly: most states have district attorneys and attorneys general, these being two distinct positions and offices. We’re small enough that the two positions are lumped into one office. Our attorneys general, therefore, spend the majority of their time and energy prosecuting criminals and upholding severe criminal justice policies rather than representing the larger interests of all our citizens.

In March, I was privileged to attend the 11th Annual Liman Public Interest Colloquium at the Yale Law School. In keeping with the topic of the conference—”Liman at the Local Level: Public Interest Advocacy and American Federalism”—we had the opportunity to hear from Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, Ohio Solicitor General William Marshall, San Francisco City Attorney Dennis Herrera, and James Tierney, Director of the National State Attorneys General Program. These four fellows have used their positions as state and city attorneys to compensate for the failings, negligence, and misguided decisions of the federal government and judiciary.

more »

Look, folks over at the Associated Press… I know things are bad. Real bad. Still, when you’re penning the End Times journalism pick of the week, write a decent headline.

Midwestern levees are bursting. Polar bears are adrift. Gas prices are skyrocketing. Home values are abysmal. Air fares, college tuition and health care border on unaffordable. Wars without end rage in Iraq, Afghanistan and against terrorism.

Horatio Alger, twist in your grave.

Twist, damn you!

In other sad news, and a subtle reminder of how ridiculous this headline is, Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai is dropping out five days before the the presidential runoff election there.

At a news conference, Mr. Tsvangirai, who leads the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, or M.D.C., said he was unwilling to ask the party’s supporters to go to the polls on Friday “when that vote will cost them their lives.”

Mr. Tsvangirai’s decision came on a day when governing party youth militia armed with iron bars, sticks and other weapons beat his supporters as they sought to attend a rally for him in Harare.

New results show strong support in RI for the direct election of the president:

Three-quarters of Rhode Islanders want to scrap the Electoral College and choose future presidents by national popular vote, according to a poll conducted for a national advocacy group that is pushing for the switch…

Among the findings of the June 1 telephone survey of 800 potential Rhode Island voters: 74 percent support the national popular vote initiative, which cleared the Rhode Island Senate last week and is now pending in the House.

The numbers are even stronger among Dems and indys — or those who cast votes for most member of our overwhelmingly Democratic legislature:

The pollsters deduced that “support for the proposal is 78% among independents, 86% among liberal Democrats, 85% among moderate Democrats, 60.

The National Popular Vote legislation handily passed the State Senate a couple of weeks ago, and is up for a hearing (and hopefully a vote) in the House Finance Committee on Tuesday.

Passage of NPV in Rhode Island would be a huge boon to the national effort:  There’s still a notion out there that the Electoral College system gives small states extra influence, while in practice, only 1 of the 13 smallest states — New Hampshire — is a swing state, and receives any attention from presidential candidates.

(And a lefty, populist aside: Even if small states were more influential under the current system, that wouldn’t make it right.)

OMG! The primary season FINALLY ends tomorrow night, and Obama is working the superdels in an effort to put this thing away for good. Meanwhile, the rumor mill has it that Clinton is inching toward suspending her campaign, and begun shedding advance staff in light of her event-less calender.

Personally, I remain hopeful that, when all is said and done, HRC will do the right thing, bow out gracefully, and unite the party behind Obama. This course of action may involve telling Harold “Faux Fannie Lou” Ickes to shut his seeds-of-destruction sowing pie hole.

Anyway, the Obama RI Crew is having a ‘lil shindig tomorrow night:

WHAT: Please join the OBAMA Rhode Island crowd as we come together for one final primary results watch party this coming Tuesday, June 3rd.

WHEN: 7:30PM and on

WHERE: Local 121 (basement), at 121 Washington Street in Providence

JOIN US AS WE FINISH THE PRIMARY SEASON AND LOOK FORWARD TO THE GENERAL ELECTION!

RSVP HERE

Find Event on Facebook Here

Just when you thought there was nothing else that Hillary’s minions could say or do to make you dry heave in terror (like, for example, claim that perennially pampered Florida voters are facing Zimbabwe-esque levels of political oppression), Harold Ickes has gone and done it.

Yes, it’s true that today’s DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting was an overall win for Obama, in that, shitshow* notwithstanding, the Committee decided to seat the FL and Michigan delegations with half-votes each, and to give Obama the uncommitted delegates from Michigan. Yes, Obama is still going to be the nominee, as he now has 2050 delegates, needs 2118 to clinch, and will pick up at least 40 between now and the final primaries in South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday, meaning that he needs only 20 of the remaining 200 superdelegates to finish the job. And yes, Hillary did indeed have every right to fight for her desired outcome, which her surrogates did in a losing effort to seat the Florida delegation with full votes before unanimously backing the half-vote compromise.

But Harold Ickes needs to get a grip. When it came time to talk Michigan, a state where Obama (and Edwards) had taken his name off of the ballot, where “Uncommitted” had garnered 45% of the vote, where turnout was absolutely anemic because there was only one candidate running (in Soviet Russia, election wins you!), Ickes had the gall to say that Hillary should get her delegates and Obama should get none, and then got so huffy about it that he threatened to take that dispute to the convention.

Huh? For a campaign that has been playing fast and loose with the word “disenfranchisement” it’s pretty befuddling to think that counting the results of an election with only one candidate on the ballot, where more people stayed home than voted, without any consideration of those factors is not basically the worst solution. Wouldn’t such a solution disenfranchise those non-voters? And what about all of the African American voters who went with uncommitted, you know, the ones who will be absolutely crucial to winning Michigan?

“Fannie Lou” Ickes cannot be bothered with such trifling matters. Here he is debasing himself in a duke-it-out with Sen. Carl Levin:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PewIXrzzazo] more »

The Rhode Island State Senate appears poised to pass the National Popular Vote legislation today.  It’s sponsored by Senator Dan Connors and others.

Once enacted by states that, in the aggregate, hold a majority of electoral votes, the NPV interstate compact would guarantee that the winner of the presidency be the candidate receiving the most popular votes.

Let’s hope that the House follows suit before session is out, and makes RI the 5th state in the nation to pass this important legislation — we’d be one fourth of the way to seeing the legislation enacted, making it likely that it’d be in effect by the 2012 election.

(There’s even a chance the legislation wouldn’t be vetoed by the Governor, as, for the first time in forever, even RI Republicans would be relevant in presidential elections.)