Oscar Odds

Nate Silver, the statistical mastermind behind fivethirtyeight.com, did some number-crunching with regard to this Sunday’s Oscars.  He says Slumdog Millionaire has a 99% chance of winning Best Picture, and Slumdog director Danny Boyle’s got a 99.7% chance of winning Best Director.  Which seems crazy, considering that Heath Ledger’s Joker performance only stands an 85% chance of winning and, you know, nobody’s going to beat the dead man.  Also, everybody loved The Dark Knight, whereas Danny Boyle movies aren’t usually very good.

Mickey Rourke has 71% for Best Actor and Kate WInslet’s got 67% chances of winning Best Actress, even though most people don’t even consider her part in The Reader to be a lead.

In other Oscar news, this year producers are trying to improve on last year’s lowest ratings ever by eliminating things like performances of the Best Song nominees.  MIA’s off with her baby now, and Peter Gabriel is refusing to do his song from Wall-E because show producers wanted to consolidate the three nominees into one three-minute medley.  Because that makes sense.

3 thoughts on “Oscar Odds”

  1. matthew lawrence

    True. The last time I liked a nominee at all it was the Triplets of Belleville song and that was five years ago. Even the MIA song is kinda blah, considering that it’s an MIA song (or at least a somebody-featuring-MIA song.)

  2. This entire category should be eliminated, not just the performances (which should definitely be eliminated). The harm caused by the sentimental drool and tedious schmaltz inflicted on the world in the name of ‘Best Song’ is incalculable. There should at least be a new rule that no song can ever again include the words ‘dreams’, ‘wings’, ‘fly’, ‘love’, ‘magic’, ‘true’, ‘rainbow’, or ‘eyes’.

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